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I compared my OK Cupid sent messages to the number of messages received. With the Jacque Cousteau/circus opener I have about a 25% reply rate over the past 10 days (I've only been using it that long). This is only going to increase as sometimes I won't get a response for a day or two. Also, I haven't adjusted this for profiles that might be abandoned. I just noticed yesterday you can see the last time someone logged on, so if a profile hasn't been active since October of last year, it's pretty safe to say that person is no longer using the site, which throws the response rate askew.
Let us know your results. If you combine this with the higher weekend response rate I'd like to see what you get.
Overall the one downside of this one is that it can become. The upside is you're basically into a conversation. You can discuss why, or which one first, why not the other, tease them. And it's using something in their profile which is great.