Wow... so much bullshit...
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I think there is a lot of truth to this. I meet these guys at every college I go to. I'd say it's a good %20-25 of young men. They barely leave their house, rarely have a girlfriend and almost never a girlfriend they actually want.
Yeah, that was me in college... but it wasn't necessarily because I had chosen to "retreat," it was because I lacked the social skills to do much else. The friends I did have reinforced my behavior... which by the way is pretty common. It's why they tell you to hang out with other guys who are good at getting women, after all!
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The Old Days
In the past, these men could rely on social structures created by modern civilization to ensure that every man had exactly one woman. Maybe the lowest tier guy can't get a mid tier girl, but he can at least be assured a low tier woman.
It's almost hilarious how you talk about "lowest tiers" in society, as if it somehow determines genetic fitness. The reality is that in many of these societies the highest tiers interbred with each other, resulting in a lot of genetic defects. "Tiers" were determined by birth station, and you didn't get to move out of your station unless maybe you were an especially attractive chick and the king happened to need a new harem girl.
Now if you want to deal with some reality, first off you're only looking at European culture it seems like. Other cultures have had different mores. For instance, among Native American tribes I've read accounts stating that when there were more women than men they'd have polygamy, when there were more men than women it would be polygyny... and when the numbers were about even they'd have monogamy.
None of which implies to me that many people were "cut out of the gene pool."
In fact, there's a theory that the human penis was evolved primarily for sperm competition:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sperm_competition
What that would mean in your "ancient cultures" is that when women mated, they would probably mate with multiple men at the same time! It's even theorized that women are more vocal during sex because their screams of passion would attract more men to attempt impregnating them. (I suspect this is also a reason for multiple orgasms and why women can take so much longer to "get there" than men in the first place. It was never really meant for one guy to satisfy a woman, it was meant for a line to form and keep going at it until she'd orgasmed her brains out!)
So see, what I'm saying here is that any societal construct that "ensured" men got to mate with women is just that... a societal construct. Nature most likely had everyone fucking everyone.
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However, with the social patriarchy crumbling, the men on the low end of spectrum lack any sort of guarantee. The fat chick is no longer forced to marry the fat guy. She can either hold out, hoping to snag someone out of her league(she can support herself after all), or even opt out altogether if she can't have her dream guy.
And yet, I've never known a "fat chick" who wasn't at LEAST trying online dating and using camera tricks to make herself look 30lbs thinner.
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If you look at our prehistoric ancestors, about %20 of women never procreated, but about %40 of men didn't. So %20 of men being unable to find a mate appears to be nature's equilibrium coming in to play when an artificial societal construct is removed.
Be honest, you made these numbers up... right? I highly doubt we can tell how many women procreated vs. didn't... and if women didn't I'd bet it had less to do with finding a mate and more to do with dying young and poor nutrition.
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Yet at the same time, I think there is a natural reflex by the genetically unfit to screen themselves out. What do I mean by this? I think we all have certain basic "standards" so to speak built into ourselves. In the past, culture was prodding us to ignore these standards and mate anyway. Now? Not so much. Fat chicks being too picky and ending up alone is actually how nature designed it. The bottom tier of women and bottom two tiers of men are meant to be childless. And what we are seeing, is nature reasserting its influence, without the enforced equality of patriarchal structure.
Except, no... in fact many cultures found fat chicks more attractive than our current culture! And again with the "tiers" bullshit. Prior to civilization there were no tiers, there was an elder or medicine man who was basically just the oldest guy in the village. All the men were hunters, and all the women were gatherers and everyone took care of the kids together.
And again, everybody probably fucked everybody.
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Natural Eugenics
I look around and think to myself that an awful lot of the population is composed of people with almost no redeeming quality. They're ugly, stupid and generally suck as people. They seem prone to substance abuse on top of this. This is probably close to %15 or so of the population. These people probably never would have existed in the natural order. And I think they're about to be phased out again in the next few generations.
The really funny thing with this part, is that the people you're talking about are the MOST likely to procreate in our society. Those kids you were talking about in college? They're the ones who aren't going to be procreating for a long time... meanwhile the druggies and people too dumb to go to college are having a lot more drug-fueled sex, are a lot less likely to use protection and more likely to procreate. I mean... well Idiocracy pretty much covered that part.
What they missed, though, is that genetic diversity being what it is... dumb, drugged out parents can actually have smart children. But I digress...
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I think what we are witnessing is natural eugenics. There is a reason we went from regular primates to such highly intelligent animals that we could create civilization. This process was our well developed screening process, where each generation we were just a little bit better than the previous generation.
Exactly the opposite. The reason we are so successful is the wide range of diversity in our genes. The small variations that allow us to survive in the freezing climate of Alask AND the boiling heat of Africa. The diversity that gave us smart humans to invent shit, and dumb but strong humans to hunt and built shit. The diversity that lets some of us develop immunities to disease.
On an evolutionary scale, our success is determined by having variety. (Well, variety, intelligence and thumbs...)
This is why Eugenics is a really bad idea. If everyone has the same genes, we'll all be vulnerable to the same problems. Think of it this way, if eugenics "natural or otherwise" made everyone have Alaskan genes but then the world heated up by 10 degrees (thanks Global Warming!) we'd all be screwed because the heat would be killing our bodies designed for cold weather.
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La Grande Histoire
With early civilization, we seemed to stagnate. Until we grew so big that we started starving and suffering from malnutrition. This screened for genetic unfitness, because only the strong children could survive a famine.
Scarce resources also lead to war. War proved to be a new way to implement the natural process again. The less physically fit and stupider men tended to be the ones who died. And it was the low quality women that were killed, because who wants to take her as war spoils?
Or you made weaker guys archers, or tacticians, or their stronger brothers helped protect them. Tactics win wars, not individuals for the most part. And women? Oh brother... so your only expectation for what would happen to the women is that they'd be captured as "trophy wives" or slaughtered for being too ugly? In your mind was every middle age peasant girl a Kate Upton thanks to this wartime eugenics?
Also to have any real impact this would require everyone to constantly be at war. Millions of men and women probably procreated between wars, you realize that right?
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The Modern Age
Only in the last century, have we had a situation where everyone was well fed, there was little risk of death as a result of malnutrition or physical unfitness in war(bullets are very much an equalizer).
All of this peace and prosperity, allowed for equality between the sexes. And with equality came autonomy. Women may have seen expanding rights, but they have not truly reached an equal status to men, until very recently. And just about the time the last vestiges of the patriarchy fade, we see nature returning.
The low quality women can't find a man, and the low quality men can't find one either. Just as nature intended.
Women still don't quite have equal status to men, and to complicate things there's so many people with so many different views... women are still being told that they should be bold, demure, businesslike and must get married young so they can have kids while putting off kids to focus on their career.
Honestly, right now everything is a mess for everyone. We all get mixed messages and I don't think anyone really knows how to act.
None of that is what nature intended.
Nature intended everyone to fuck everyone as much as possible.